Peter Schiff’s 2015 Gold Prediction

I’m getting word and sentiment from multiple sources that I follow that 2015 will be the year of gold. Here is Peter Schiff‘s forecast for this year.

My followers will know that the highest-paying gold move, one that will pay close to 1800:1, is 2016 or 2017 GLD Call Options as far out of of the money as you can go. Put $1000 in January 2017 GLD Calls at $225, and if gold does what it did in 1980, you will be a millionaire by 2016.

That is not a move to put more than 1% of your portfolio in, just to caution you. If GLD does not reach $225 by 2017 you will lose the entire investment. If anyone is interested in a post on how options work, let me know and I’ll write one. For now check my article on this specific investment move at TheStreet.

CURRENCY COLLAPSE Russian Ruble crashes, only backing with gold will save it

In what is the first major crash in what will likely be a series of currency collapses in the coming year, the Russian Ruble crashed another 20% today against the dollar, the euro, and even 13% against the shekel. Now is the time to buy Russian goods if you know of any good Russian equivalents to Amazon. They want your currency and will sell you stuff cheap.

If you’ve never seen a currency collapse before, this is what it looks like on paper:

Russian Rubles per USD
Russian Rubles per USD

Putin is trying to save the currency by raising interest rates, but it is doubtful that will work at this point. This is crisis of confidence in paper, and the only way to reverse it is to get rid of the paper, meaning back it with something real. Make it exchangeable for some unit of something at a fixed ratio and don’t cheat.

If Russia makes the Ruble convertible into gold – and it certainly can do this given the amount of gold Russia has been buying of late, it will stop the Ruble collapse in its tracks and reverse it.

When people stop believing in your paper, the paper returns to its intrinsic value of zero. If you turn that paper into gold, the paper becomes something. But then, of course, you cannot print anymore. If Putin wants to save his economy, he has to give up the ability to print money.

Otherwise, Russia will default again, just like it did in 1998, and Fight Club style, everyone’s savings will be entirely lost and the country will start over again.

The wonders of fiat money.

CONFUSING ECB to buy gold to boost inflation? I’m totally lost

This one is really confusing. Some European Central Bank official with a severe shortage of vowels in his name, Yves Mersch, warned that the ECB could buy stocks, ETF’s, and…gold. Why? In order to boost inflation. What the hell does that even mean? Does anyone have a clue?

Usually the zany things that central bankers say at least make sense within their own economic misconceptions and they are at least consistently wrong on the same things because they all hold the same false doctrines. But this is something new. How in anyone’s mind does buying gold boost inflation? Someone should check if he was drunk or high during his speech because it sure sounds like it.

Hey, if he wants to buy gold, fine by me. But inflation by definition is money unbacked by specie. If you buy specie you are backing your money, not inflating it.

Could it be that God is starting to put strange thoughts in these banker’s heads in preparation for what’s to come? Who knows, but that is the weirdest thing I’ve heard come out of a central banker’s mouth in a long time.

Considering the fact that the Swiss National Bank is fighting tooth and nail against the Swiss electorate NOT to buy gold ahead of the Swiss Gold Initiative referendum on November 30 precisely because buying gold would force them to stop inflating, if the ECB cleared his speech and this is actually the ECB’s plan, it really makes no sense, not even within the twisted logic of the ECB’s own Keynesian system.

Something really weird is going on here.

The Banksters are Worried that the Swiss Gold Initiative Will Pass

The vote is in two weeks, November 30th, and it could be a day for the financial history books, reversing the infamy of August 15, 1971. More important than any election about which group of politicians is going to tell you what to do.

They’re starting to squirm now. The head of the Swiss National Bank, some guy named Something Jordan, was quoted as saying that the Swiss Gold Initiative would be “fatal” for the bank. Usually, this kind of jargon is hyperbole, but in this case, Something Jordan is right. If a central bank must keep something that it cannot print or its buddies cannot print as a certain percentage of its holdings, then by definition that central bank is tethered and restricted from printing beyond a certain point.

The money supply becomes stable and moves only with an increase in gold supplies, and inflation stops. The Swiss Gold Initiative only requires a 20% ratio of gold to Swiss Francs, but it doesn’t matter what the ratio is. As long as there is any requirement to hold something physical in proportion to monopoly money at a fixed percentage, the amount of paper that can in theory be printed becomes limited, and the central bank dies. Unless, of course, it cheats, as the Federal Reserve did from 1913 until 1971 when it finally defaulted on its last gold payments.

If this referendum passes, and with God’s help it will, then the first central bank in the West will go down. The Swiss Franc will shoot up like a rocket, bringing down other currencies in relation to it, and the Swiss people’s purchasing power will double, triple, who knows how high it will go. They’ll be able to buy a lot more stuff with their paper and they will notice it. Then other countries will notice it too and start demanding sound money and declare war against their respective central banks.

The snowball will be fast and furious and central banks will fall like flies. Gold and silver will move up fast and leave paper in the dust. The shot heard round the world will be fired in Switzerland, incidentally, exactly where Zionism began in 1897. I haven’t found much of a link between those two things. I just think it’s cool.

I have already discussed my investment strategy for gold in an article on TheStreet. The most leveraged way to play this is to buy way out of the money calls on GLD going out to 2016 and 2017, which will pay out 1750:1 at current prices assuming gold does what it did in 1980 by January 2016 or 2017, depending on your strike date.

That means that for every $1,000 you put into GLD 225 2016 Calls, you will get $1.75M in return if gold quintuples as it did from 1978-1980. Of course, you could also lose it all if gold does nothing by then.

But if the Swiss Gold Referendum passes, we will be in the end game, a year or two away at most.

Central banks will fall like flies. Incidentally, I swatted three flies today in my house.

Gold Alert

The Gold Alert is being signalled today. By Gold Alert I mean market down, dollar down, bonds down, and gold up all in the same day. I wrote about it when it happened in 2012. Since then I haven’t been following, but I will report from now on.

One day means nothing, but many days in a row and that means we’re in the final end game. So as of now, the market is down, bonds are down, the dollars index is down, and gold is up, but just barely.

 

New $100 Bill hints at Gold Standard?

This is quite interesting. The new $100 bill, which I never knew about since I haven’t lived in the US since 2007, puts on an epic show battle between gold and paper.

I wonder why the Federal Reserve would design a bill like this. Strange. Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8qRSP6zEgE

Here’s another:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXH74Ewo8dM

Argentina Defaults and Repegs to the Dollar. But what happens when the US Defaults?

My latest article on TheStreet hits the homepage. Go me.

Here I explain, using Ludwig Von Mises’ monetary regression theorem, why any other country that defaults can quickly regain economic footing by pegging to the dollar and starting a new currency. But if (when) the US defaults, there will be nothing to peg the dollar to.

Except gold.

Here’s an excerpt.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Argentina defaults, and the cycle repeats once again, exactly as before. After defaulting, the government pegs to the dollar, as tracked in the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (UUP). Then it spends too much money buying votes, prints money to compensate (currency devaluation, no more peg), inflation results, the printing presses are shut on the verge of hyperinflation, government can’t pay its debts, it defaults, and everyone loses their savings and starts over, Fight Club style. Then someone else is elected and promises to peg to the dollar, and everything happens again.

The US Monetary Base Crosses $4 TRILLION, my latest article for TheStreet

In this article I explain why the ultimate inflation hedge is not gold, silver, gold miners, silver miners, commodities, silver options, or options in miners.

It’s actually 2016 GLD $225 call options, with a risk/return of a whopping 1379:1. That means for every $1,000 you put in, the risk is $1000, but the return is $1,379,000.

Talk about the ultimate inflation hedge.

Here’s an excerpt:

Go to the GLD 2016 calls and the farthest strike out is $225. Assuming a quintupling of gold in a two-year time frame (either from January 2014 or January 2015, as 2017 LEAPS in GLD will also be available come November) that puts GLD at roughly $625. $225 LEAPS on GLD are currently available for 29 cents, and only 6,688 contracts have been traded. Compare that with SLV’s 55,000 and this trade seems extremely neglected.

If GLD quintuples in two years, that puts the options at $400 a contract, for a return of 1,379-times, or an astronomical 137,800%. Meaning, for every $1,000 you put into 2016 or 2017 $225 GLD LEAP options, you will have $1,379,300. That is nearly twice the return on SLV LEAPS, putting the risk/return ratio at 1379:1, and that already takes into account that gold is generally half as fast in rising as silver.

This is what would happen if taxes were payable in any currency?

Beyond all the free market reforms I will spearhead as a Knesset Member, first and foremost will be a free market in money itself. Technically, the solution is extremely simple: Allow Israeli taxpayers to pay their taxes in any currency they choose, even the shekel if they choose. This would make any currency legal tender de facto, and would end the Bank of Israel’s monopoly over the shekel supply.

In order to understand why this is so necessary and exactly why it would free the economy so effectively, we need to understand how and why a monopoly on money creation by the Bank of Israel is so destructive, why it makes the middle class poorer continually, and precisely why it causes the boom/bust cycle.

Cars as an example: The Money Printer vs the Money Saver

Imagine for a moment that I want to buy a car for 100,000 shekels. I’d rather not work and save, so instead I decide to simply print 100,000 shekels in cash so I can buy the car. I print it, I hand the money over to the car dealer, and the car is now mine.

What just happened here? I counterfeited 100,000 shekels and increased the money supply by 100,000 when I handed those shekels over to the car dealer. The average person, the kind that has to work for his money would say that I stole 100,000 shekels. But today’s economic experts like Stanley Fischer and Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman would say that I gave “economic stimulus to the automobile industry.” So what really happened?

When an average person works in the private economy and saves money to buy a car, he produces more than he consumes, hence savings. In other words, he puts more into the economy than he takes out, the difference represented by the money he saves. There is now more value in the economy, more stuff because he worked harder, and he takes that real value represented by the money saved and buys a car for 100,000 shekels.

The car dealer now has 100,000 shekels of real value to invest in expanding his business, and thanks to the value that the saver added to the economy through saving, there is now more value in the economy with the same money supply. The value of the shekel goes up and prices drop just a little bit, and everyone owning shekels gets a bit richer thanks to the saver. The car dealer can now expand his business and safely assume the demand is there to match his increase in supply. The economy grows.

Now, if I simply print up 100,000 shekels and give it to the car dealer, I added zero value to the economy. There is no more useful stuff. Just paper. I did not save a thing. All I am doing is taking from the economy without adding anything to it. Worse, the 100,000 shekels I added to the money supply makes the value of the shekel go down a little bit, since more shekels are now chasing the same amount of goods. Prices go up. Everyone gets poorer, except for me of course, because I got to buy the car before the money supply went up. The act of me buying the car was itself the action that made the money supply go up in the first place. I, the money printer and the first new money user, am up one car. Yay for me. But everyone else besides the first person to use newly printed money loses.

Now, let’s say I stop printing money and the car dealer expands his business with the new shekels. Since everyone is now poorer, there is no new demand to match his new supply. The signal he got of new demand for his cars was wrong, because the 100,000 shekels I printed did not represent added value to the economy through saving. Demand is not there, his business overexpands and he has to cut back and contract by selling cars for cheaper and taking a loss. His business shrinks or “goes into recession”, but cars get less expensive for everyone else.

But let’s say I keep printing 100,000 shekels every day and buy another car with it day after day after day. The car dealer will keep misinterpreting the sales as new demand that doesn’t actually exist. He will keep expanding. It will look like the economy is growing and growing, the statistics the government puts out on car sales will skyrocket. But really, only I and the car dealer are benefiting. Everyone else is suffering inflation and getting poorer and poorer every time I print. At some point I will have to print more than 100,000 to buy each car since the money supply is expanding so rapidly, but that’s no big deal for me. It takes the same effort to print 150,000 as it does to print 100,000. I keep getting richer. Inflation doesn’t bother me. The car dealer keeps expanding and cars become so expensive that no one can buy them. Then let’s say suddenly I stop printing shekels and stop buying cars. The car dealer’s business totally crashes, and he goes out of business in a bankruptcy sale. All the cars get sold to the public for ultra cheap. His business “goes into depression,” but cars are suddenly cheap for everyone else.

So we see that every time money is printed:

  1. The ones who receive it first are the ones who benefit the most
  2. The ones who receive it first also become entirely dependent on it
  3. The ones who receive it last suffer inflation and a rising cost of living

And we see that every time I stop printing money:

  1. Those who were receiving it first, suffer the most
  2. Everyone else benefits from deflation and a falling cost of living

What happens in reality?

But this is not exactly how it happens in reality. The institution in charge of printing shekels, the Bank of Israel headed by Karnit Flug, does not “stimulate the automobile industry”. No no. That’s not her job, at least not directly. When Flug expands the money supply, she buys none other than government bonds with printed money and stimulates the government. The government is always the first to get the new money.

The government then puts most of the money into the banking system, and uses a small tiny percentage of it to hire more government ministers in order to satisfy coalition partners, give raises to government workers in order to keep up with consumer prices (because God forbid a Knesset Member should suffer the ravages of inflation), cave in to unions like the Histadrut when they threaten a general strike which gives them even more power to shut the country down in future spats, and pass out more welfare to the four corners of the Earth to get more voters. So the first ones to receive new money from Fischer are:

  1. The government and its workers
  2. The banks

Who is the next in line? After buying votes and coalition stability with printed money, the banks then take most of the money and invest it in the stock market and mortgage loans. So the next in line are:

  1. The stock market
  2. The real estate market

As the real estate market rises, so do rent prices, effecting the middle class wage earner who can’t afford to buy a house and who is always last to get the new printed money. Meanwhile the government and the banks expand blissfully, and the stock market goes up, but you don’t have enough money to invest there because, with inflation and rent and food going up, you are going into debt. To the banks of course.

And so it goes, that every time the Bank of Israel prints money, the government and the banks and the land owning government-connected tycoons get richer and the middle class gets poorer. The wealth transfer from middle class to rich is a necessary part of this process. Why? Because if, for example, the Bank of Israel wants to raise the money supply by 5% and instead of giving the money to the government and the banks, it simply adds 5% to all of our bank accounts overnight, the prices of everything would go up 5% in a day or two and the Bank of Israel would have accomplished nothing but stark and immediate price inflation. The trick is to give it to one group and its buddies, being the government and the banks first. That way it takes time for inflation to affect prices and people don’t even realize they’re getting poorer, or if they do, why it’s even happening.

In order for it to work, the inflation it has to be slow and insidious so people don’t even realize what’s going on. It has to look something like this:

It has to take place over years and decades, so suddenly 50 years pass and people wonder why it now takes 2 salaries and 30 years to pay down a mortgage instead of 20 years and 1 salary, like it did 50 years ago. And then innocent people led by ignorant populists suddenly go out in the streets and protest, but they don’t know what to demand in order to fix it. Just that the government “do something,” like print money and hand it out or something.

Why is this happening? It’s because your money is losing more and more value every year while your wage grows at a slower and slower pace. You are not a government buddy, so you never get the new money first. Every time money loses value, the politically connected get richer, because they are always the first ones to get the new batch first. Government, banks, stock market, real estate.

If you want to blame someone for the cost of living going up and your paycheck staying flat, someone to blame for the rich always getting richer and the middle class always shrinking, blame paper money and the Bank of Israel, and the government for forcing you to accept its garbage money by forcing you to pay taxes with it. The Bank of Israel has destroyed savings entirely once before.

Inflation is always, always bad, because the effect is cumulative. Inflation of 1% one year does not “make up” for inflation of 4% the year before. If prices go up 4% one year while your paycheck only goes up 2%, you now have 2% less purchasing power. If the next year prices only go up 1% and your paycheck only goes up .5%, you lose another .5% purchasing power in addition to the 2% you already lost. It only gets worse. Every year. And the losses keep adding up for the middle class. You are being robbed. Every year. All the time.

Eventually the wealth transfer will become so extreme that the system will collapse. It is inevitable. Unless we act to fix it, right now.

The Solution: Competing Currencies

If taxes are payable in any currency, the Bank of Israel loses its monetary monopoly. If it prints too much, the value goes down relative to other currencies and Israelis will prefer earning those currencies instead and the bank will have to cut back on its printing or stop it entirely in order to support the shekel’s value. If Israelis can pay taxes in dollars, euros, gold, silver, bitcoin, whatever, they can then earn those currencies and they can start circulating in the Israeli economy.

Competition breeds honest money, and the middle class always gets stronger. How? Because with honest money, the money supply stays constant or increases only very slowly, but the supply of goods in the economy grows much faster, so everything gets cheaper over time.

To give you one stark example from the United States, over the last 50 years, the price of a house in dollars has risen 780%. But the price of a house measured in ounces of silver has actually dropped 64%. What about the middle class wage earner? The average wage in dollars has gone up 766%, but the amazing thing is that, in ounces of silver, or real purchasing power, the average wage has dropped a dramatic 65%. In other words, it looks like wages have increased, but there is actually 65% less purchasing power even in that increase. That’s how insidious inflation is. It looks like you’re gaining but you’re actually losing. The middle class and the poor always lose with monopoly (literally, not the game) money, but they would gain with free market money.

The way to do it so make taxes payable in any currency, thereby making any currency legal tender, and breaking the government’s monopoly on the money supply.

 

Iran trading in gold to avert sanctions

From Arutz Sheva:

Report: Iran Skirting Sanctions by Trading in Gold

The Iranian regime has found a way to circumvent the economic sanctions imposed by the West and delay the crash of the local economy. It is engaging in illegal (editor’s note: FAH!) trading in gold, according to a Tuesday morning report in the British newspaper the Times.

The report says that after the United States made it clear it would treat any breach of the sanctions on Iran as money laundering, Iran began to demand gold in exchange for oil. The Islamic Republic is doing so through a large network of private front companies.

How dare the United States tell Iran what to do? If they want to build a nuclear weapon, power to them. Israel will take care of it if we so choose. Franklin D. Roosevelt, that horrendous thief, made trading in gold illegal for all US citizens back in 1933 and simply confiscated all gold belonging to private people and devalued it. Now Obama wants to make it illegal for Iranians too.

America, that imperialist power, also makes it illegal for anyone in the world to buy oil with anything but dollars, by threat of force. Then America takes that power and buys its citizens welfare. What a sick bully country. That is the only thing keeping the dollar from turning into toilet paper – the fact that the world must use it to buy oil. The real story here is that the petrodollar is slipping, because Iran is now trading oil for gold. Good for them. The dollar just got another kick in the gut.

Let it fall.