The Difference Between Gold and Bitcoin is Time

Bitcoin is crashing today, along with all cryptocurrencies. I’m not “happy” because I like bitcoin. It’s crashing today because of Asian legal worries. Eventually, all cryptocurrencies will be outlawed entirely. All of them, except government cryptocurrencies. Those will be inflated continuously and purchases using them will be tracked entirely.

Gold cannot be outlawed because it has too much support as a thing that exists in reality over time. Cryptocurrencies can be outlawed entirely because they are new, and have little support outside of core grassroots cryptoenthusiasts. If you’re playing for collapse, which I am, the play is gold, not bitcoin. All cryptocurrencies will eventually go to zero as global government bankruptcy gets closer. Only hard assets with an intrinsic market value based on use value will be worth anything. Cryptos will be firewalled and pushed into black markets at best. Those who trade them will be termed monetary terrorists and the biggest of them will be those who use cryptocurrencies for contract killing, taken to court in public trials and portrayed as if everyone who owns any amount of bitcoin makes their living killing people.

Obviously, the vast majority if digitial currency owners are innocent people who do nothing wrong whatsoever. But they will not be portrayed that way. Be very careful.

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Shortage vs High Prices in Chazal

Mdirash Rabba Breishit, Toldot 64:2 – Chazal seem to recognize the difference between high prices and a bona fide shortage. A shortage happens only when buying and/or selling at the market price is forbidden by government. If prices are mandated by government to be lower than the market price, a shortage will develop when more buyers than sellers are willing to exchange. Some buyers will not find what they want. At the market price, the amount of buyers and sellers equal out.

The Midrash here is discussing the famine that Yitzchak tried to escape from. God told him to stay in Israel and not to go down to Egypt like his father:

Is it not taught that one may not leave the land [of Israel] unless two se’ahs of wheat are being sold for a selah? Rebbi Shimon says when does this apply? When there is no wheat to by. But if there is wheat available, even one se’ah for a selah (meaning twice the price as above) one may not leave the land. Since Elimelech left the land he was punished, in that he and his sons died.

If food is very expensive in Israel, it isn’t sufficient reason to leave. But if there is a shortage and you can’t buy what you’re looking for, then you can leave. Nafka mina bewteen high cost of living and real shortage of goods due to economic intervention. Without government, there are no shortages because price always finds market level.

 

Gold Flag Forming Today

Took a look at the futures this morning and the S&P, Nasdaq, and the Dow all spiked down together with the dollar index and bond futures. The long term treasury ETF (TLT) is down close to 1% in premarket. Gold is up close to 1%.

When stocks, bonds, and the dollar index are all down together with gold up, that’s a gold flag. The end game will see gold flag after gold flag for weeks at a time.

What is happening with cryptocurrencies now will happen with gold. If bitcoin can move from $1,000 to $20,000 in 8 months, gold can, too. Except with gold, I believe it won’t go back down after it spikes. Cryptocurrencies will all go to zero if they ever become a popular medium of exchange because government will blame a falling dollar on bitcoin and the rest, outlaw any business from accepting any digital coins and game over, but gold will keep going up.

This is just one gold flag. Let’s see if it maintains itself and if it repeats again tomorrow.

Once price inflation hits 3-5% by government indexes, I believe the final stages in dollar hegemony will begin.

 

One Cheer for Kahlon, and A Word on Protectionism

Moshe Kahlon, chairman of some party called “All of Us” and as the Finance Minister for some reason has the power to get rid of certain taxes singlehandedly, will be getting rid of all import taxes on products that are not produced in Israel. I’m pretty sure this means products where a tariff on them does not protect any industry in Israel.

The tagline of the article is this though, and it’s pretty stupid:

היום הוכרז המהלך שיביא להורדת יוקר המחיה על ידי הוזלת מאות מוצרי צריכה שאינם מיוצרים בארץ. שורת המוצרים עליהם בוטל המכס כלל לא מיוצרים בארץ – ולכן אין שום סיבה שהמדינה תטיל עליהם מכס

Today it was announced that a process will begin that will bring down the cost of living by cheapening consumer products that are not produced in Israel. The products that will no longer have tariffs are not produced in Israel at all – therefore there is no reason for the State to place tariffs on them.

The fact that tariffs on these products will be taken down is great, but the reasoning is idiotic. Tariffs are just a cash grab that uses protectionism as an excuse. They are not there to “protect Israeli industry”. They are there to take money away from you and put it in the hands of the government.

First of all, if the government wanted to protect domestic industry, it would just forbid imports from other countries of products that compete with Israeli industry. But it doesn’t do that. It just takes a cut from you if you buy the competition, because what the government really wants is not protected industry, but money, however it can get it and from whoever it can get it, with any excuse it can use to do so.

Second, the whole idea of protectionism is asinine. It’s easy to see if you take the extreme case. Let’s say an Israeli company can only produce widget X at a cost of a billion shekels a widget because the company produces widget X by hand and does not have the know-how to produce it via capital equipment like machines.

A Japanese company, or whatever country, can produce the same widget X for one shekel a widget, because they have a machine that can do it really quickly and cheaply. The problem with “protecting” the Israeli widget X industry by slapping a tariff of 999,999,999 shekels per Japanese widget X becomes obvious.

If any Israeli company can only produce X expensively versus a Japanese company that can produce X cheaply, it means that the Israeli company is bad at doing what it does and it should stop doing it and go out of business, and the people who worked for that bad company should do something else with their time that is more efficient, something that they are better at than the rest of the world.

To protect an Israeli producer by taking money from consumers means harming Israeli consumers.

But yeah, good for Kahlon. Even though he’s not the sharpest butter knife in the drawer, he’s doing something good here.

How Judaism Solves the Male Sexual Harassment Problem: Assume All Men Do It

Ever since Harvey Weinstein broke, sexual harassment claims have been spilling out against powerful men faster than I’ve ever seen. That it’s happening now is just a historical accident, but the fact most of it (I assume, minus a few copycats) is true is not inherently surprising.

If everyone (especially women) observed the halachos of yichud (being alone with a woman) strictly, sexual harassment wouldn’t be a big problem. It would be a minor issue only. I say this is the woman’s responsibility in secular society because they are the ones who don’t want to be harassed, so they need to take the precaution, and never be alone with a man, for any reason, that they do not want to have sex with.

Attractive women must understand this about men. All of them want sex, all the time. If men become powerful enough they lose their inhibitions, so don’t ever be alone with any man you do not want to sleep with. If you are alone with any man, assume your chances of sexual advances, wanted or not, are greater than 30%. So just don’t do it.

While that does not totally end the problem, it greatly curtails it into something more manageable.

Why I Oppose the French Law to Grant Immunity to a Prime Minister

Never give the state any more power than it already has. It will always come back to hurt you, every time. No state official should be immune to any investigation, least of all a Prime Minister. Pretty much the only respite we simple Jews have from constant government harassment is when the state stops spending our money and regulating our behavior and instead fights itself, blissfully forgetting about us for just a moment.

Consider, the only time in recent history there has ever been a government surplus in the US was under President Clinton, who spent most of his time dealing with investigations and impeachment proceedings.

Whether it’s serious harassment like forced evacuations and destruction of Jewish property, or minor harassment like filling out some bureaucratic form or other in order to do construction on your own house, when the State fights itself, the simple people win. So why make it harder for the state to attack itself?

I’m nobody’s chassid. I listen to differing opinions from all sides, but I don’t consider any of them holy, not even the opinions straight from the mouth of the leader of my party. A Prime Minister should never have immunity from investigation.

This new law is called the “French Law”. The point of the “French Law” is to make it almost impossible to indict a sitting Prime Minister. Moshe has his reasons to support the law, I understand them, but I disagree with them. Here is Moshe’s main claim verbatim, which I’ll translate loosely and then object to.

“הרבה יותר משאני מפחד משחיתות המנהיגים, אני מפחד מדיקטטורת חבורת שלטון החוק. את המושחתים בצמרת יש לי כוח להחליף כל ארבע שנים. את הכנופיה אין לי”

Says Moshe, “More than I fear the corruption of our leaders, I fear the dictatorship of the rule of law gang. Corrupt leaders I can vote out of office every four years. Unelected leaders, I can’t vote out.”

He’s referring to what Americans call the Deep State. Supreme Court justices are unelected in Israel, and so are part of the Deep State, as are most of the powerful bureaucratic positions referred to here offhand. It’s the unelected leaders, the Deep State, that mess around with the system to undermine the elected leaders, and therefore this law will be better for the balance of power.

Respectfully, I get it, but don’t agree. Making any part of the government stronger means they will be even worse than before.

Elected leaders and unelected leaders are on the same team. They don’t oppose each other. There is no difference between them. A sitting Prime Minister, immune to investigation, will be much better able to fulfill the goals of that unelected Deep State. Whether that’s destruction of settlements, freeing murderers in a good-will gesture, raising taxes, aggravating businesses, etc. the government will be more powerful than otherwise. Nothing good comes of powerful government.

In what sense is Bibi an “elected” leader anyway? Because 20% of voters dislike him slightly less than everyone else who ran? And then he builds coalitions with the people that these 20% dislike even more, and calls it a “government”? How do you replace him? His replacements will do the same thing he does. We all know this. So what’s the difference?

We can see the futility of “elected leaders” by the direction government goes in, all the time, no matter who you vote for. Consider the direction we are headed, not just in Israel, but globally. Government everywhere is growing – all around the world. Government budgets take up more and more of GDP by percentage, and with ever-growing budgets, government debt all over the world just keeps rising. States everywhere, globally, keep eating more and more and more of our wealth, no matter who we vote for.

Trump, for example, hasn’t cut a dime. He’s only increased spending, made airport travel even more miserable than before, he wants to raise all kinds of taxes, and any “tax reform” he proposes will be “revenue neutral”, meaning the government will, at best, still get the same amount of money from us, just in different slices from different people.

In Europe, despite a continent wide debt-crisis, not a single EU government has cut any debt. Not even Greece. It just doesn’t happen. Elections cannot change it. The unelected Deep State runs the show.

In Israel, no government ever changes policy. They just use different catchphrases that poll well in focus groups for a “demographic”. Nobody ends Oslo, nobody lowers taxes, nobody lowers spending, nobody increases freedom or shrinks government. Not Labor, not Likud, not anyone else. There are the unelected people in charge, and the elected puppets. You can change the puppets. But the puppet show must go on.

So why bother trying to get Moshe Feiglin into the Prime Minister’s seat at all? Because Moshe is not just another candidate puppet. He’s a revolution. He and the Deep State are incompatible. They can’t infect him.

Besides, look at it this way. When Moshe becomes Prime Minister, he will have already won the hearts of the people. With the people behind you, no investigation can ever hurt, French Law or not. Zehut does not need this law to be passed. It won’t help. Bibi being investigated is simply a result of the people of Israel not liking him.

If anything, we should make it extremely easy to indict and evict any Prime Minister from office for any reason reason no matter how small. Like for jaywalking, or sticking gum on the bottom of a public bench. For any Prime Minister who does that, the punishment should be not impeachment, but simply a publicly televised degumming of the bench by the Prime Minister himself. After that spectacle, he’d have no power anyway.