The Greek talks with the Eurozone just broke down again. There currently is no way forward. Greek bank runs may start as early as tomorrow. If they do, the Eurozone will disintegrate fast. Most people did not see this coming and thought Greece would cave. But I did. I felt Greece would not cave, at least strongly suspected it. Here’s why.
I don’t have much investment in Yanis Varoufakis other than fascination and an inkling he can hold his own. He’s showing the Eurozone leaders that he’s not a yes man, not a politician, but a guy with principles that won’t break.
Most commentators on my side of the spectrum, the libertarians, armageddonists, preppers and those folk simply assumed that Greece will cave to Troika demands sooner or later, but that’s because they haven’t been following Varoufakis for three years like I have. Or maybe it’s just a 6th sense I have or something that I recognized with Ron Paul and Feiglin, and to a certain extent with Varoufakis. This harks back to my Ron Paul article about soul.
Varoufakis is wrong about a lot of stuff, even about basic stuff, but he has a soul. And he will not break from what he sees as right. Tsipras and the rest of Syriza are all a bunch of politician monkeys and they’ll cave. But Yanis Varoufakis won’t. Interestingly, Varoufakis is not even a Syriza party member.
Bob Wenzel recently quoted Tyler Cowen, a mainstream economist, as saying this:
The Greek government will cave so cravenly on the substance that they want to have it on the record books that they supplied some expressive goods for a few weeks’ time, namely insulting the Germans and claiming that the Troika is dead and buried.
See, that would be true of any Greek politician except Varoufakis. He won’t cave on anything, unless absolutely ordered to do so, in which case he will resign, as he has said explicitly that he keeps his resignation letter in his inside pocket and will submit it the moment he feels he can no longer speak truth to power. Or his version of it anyway.
Even the bloggers on my side of the aisle like Wenzel simply don’t understand this. I covered this in my column two weeks ago at CalvinAyre, where I said the following:
In a nutshell, it’s like this. If just another politician occupied the Greek FinMin seat, eventually he’d be bought off by the Troika, that trifecta of acronyms like ESM and EFSF that hold all the bailout funds, and the proverbial can would be kicked down the road again. But Varoufakis is not just another politician, and that’s what political mainstreamers, as well as Eurozone leaders themselves, just don’t understand. He’s serious. He wants to default, he’s been saying it for years, and he is the only one with the guts and independence to mean what he says and do it.
Varoufakis still may cave. I don’t have as much faith in his strength of character than I do of Ron Paul or Moshe Feiglin, but so far he has been holding up. How much longer I don’t know. But we can safely assume that since he has not yet resigned, he has not caved.
Now, at the prospect of Greece being kicked out of the Euro, Varoufakis could get fired. Once he’s out, if that happens, you can be sure Greece will cave. Tsipras is a nobody, that I’m sure of. Zerohedge is reporting now that the Germans want Varoufakis out. Why? Because he literally is the only obstacle in the way of continuing this disgusting bailout. There is no one else in the way. Just him. Quoting Keeptalkinggreece:
An SPD politician from Merkels’ social-democrat coalition suggested s that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras should replaces Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis as he apparently creates lots of confusion, German politicians cannot understand.
SPD executive board member, Joachim Poß, wrote in an e-mail for his party colleagues:
“Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis has best demonstrated with his performance until now, that he is not up to the demands of such an office. In the interest of the Greek people and in view of the difficult situation, Prime Minister Tsipras should consider to replace Mr Varoufakis with a political experienced, realistic-efficient person.”
Let me take that last bold paragraph out of Orwellian Newspeak and translate it into Human:
“Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis has best demonstrated with his performance until now that he is not up to simply caving to our demands for fear of being kicked out of the Euro. In the interest of the German government oligarchy and in view of the difficult situation, Prime Minister Tripras should consider to replace Mr. Varoufakis with a politician.”
Watch Greek capital flight tomorrow. It could get intense.
4 thoughts on “Varoufakis Holding his Own, Germans want him replaced!”
Looks like we were both wrong. Too bad.
Yup, Bob called it. Varoufakis caved. I suppose having basic economics correct and having a spine are necessarily connected.
I understand Bob’s position, as the odds always favor politicians caving in such a scenario. Further, the vast majority of political newcomers, even ones that proclaim outsider status, are not Ron Paul or Moshe Feiglin types and seem to be surprisingly easy to co-opt, even someone like Varoufakis. All it took to ratify Oslo was a Mitsubishi.
However, I do wonder if he misreads the situation.
If the Greeks support Varoufakis, which they seem to, he can continue to delay even past the point that ordinary Greeks start to feel real pain.
I hope he was not speaking as a politician when referring to the letter he keeps in his pocket.
And they (EU) said that they never would intervene in the local politics of the countries involved. The arrangement is just for the ‘mutual economical benefits of all’. There are even national-based campaigns (for national culture) founded with EU “development funds for culture” (these are money EU just gives to the newer, poorer countries involved, these are money “not to be returned” for various aspects of society or economy they agree to invest in – like for example the free-thinking regarding “gay issues” because it has been observed that non-Western countries come with traditional views, based on religion or just society since being gay was illegal in communist societies). Where do these money for dreams (and ideas) keep coming from? Paranoids all around are just sure that behind EU there is the Freemasonry and their obscure atheist and occult interests. In Freemasonry which is simply just a Mafia, the boss asking someone out just because “they spoke” is normal, because the Mafia needs structure and hierarchy so they know with what position exactly they can buy people. If there is chaos and revolution then everything is insecure. What can they promise?
EU may not be Mafia per se, at least not Napoli kind of Mafia, a more educated kind, but they sure behave like that type of organization. There is no way they will ever accept “divergent thoughts” at the top. At the pubs people can meet, drink beer, and plan whatever they like. But at the top “accountable people” will be placed. It’s very possible the likes of Freemasonry, Illuminati, Mafia, any kind of restrictive interest-based organization in Europe, will take over this very structured organization that will not breathe for the sake of it (air).