The day after, it’s hard. But I saw this coming. Just see my previous post.
In short, here’s what goes down from here. First, if you remember recent Israeli elections history, you’ll note that in the last two elections going back to 2009, Likud won a lot less seats than they were polling only a few days before the elections. In 2009 they were polling 35 a few days before and won 27. In 2012, Likud Beiteinu was polling 39 and won 31.
Even before that, in 2006, the leading party ended up winning a lot less seats than it was polling just before election day. Olmert’s Kadima was polling in the upper 30’s and came away with 29. In 2006, the surprise was the Pensioners, the Old People Party, that somehow got 7 seats. In 2013 it was Yesh Atid, which somehow ended up with 19 seats.
People are sick of Likud and they’re sick of Netanyahu. They say what they say to the pollsters but when they’re in the booth, many are looking for something different. Same this time around. From here Likud will start to slowly fall in the polls, from 22, down to 20, down to 18, and by election day they’ll end up with about 15. Bayit Yehudi could even end up beating them. Herzog will be Prime Minister, or there will be elections again if he can’t build a coalition.
The results for Likud will be so embarrassing that Netanyahu will have to resign. From there, Feiglin will run for the top spot again and win. In the background, the Eurozone will be imploding, inflation skyrocketing, and general financial chaos will ensue from all the money printing that has gone on since the last crash.
9 months to go. Let’s see if I’m right.
The Jewish Libertarian 
just got the news. very disheartening. i think i can predict feiglin’s response (and he would be right…) – basically, it seems the new Jewish Home party is getting a lot of right-wing hype at present. however, bayit yehudi remains, ideologically, a sectoral party, while Likud is constitutionally the “mifleget ha’am” or at least the party of the national camp. these truths about the two parties remain regardless of who is in control, who is in the knesset, and who the members are.
the new Jewish home party instituted primaries and thus stole right-wing members from Likud. A few election cycles will go by, a new leader will arise, the party will go back to its natural number of seats in the Knesset, which is definitely not 15. In the meantime, Likud as a party/movement will weather the storm and will be there to once again take center stage when BY fades into the background. Right-wing BY defector members will return to Likud and vote in a right-wing party list.
The other alternative is that Bayit Yehudi ultimately is successful in transforming itself into Likud B. Its secular party head (say Dani Dayan) then chooses to merge with Likud, immediately triggering the founding of a new NRP. Same results, slightly different path.
And why 9 months?
how come feiglin got about 12000 votes ,last time he ran for “leadership’ he got more ?
There was an organized deal against him from Chayim Katz, Yariv Levin, Zev Elkin, and Danny Danon. There was also vote tampering when Bibi kicked our observers out of the vote count, but it doesn’t matter. The Likud is done.
What’s with all the doom-and-gloom? Have you read too much ynet in the past 2 weeks? Israel is a great place to live in. It’s a prosperous country, the inflation has never been lower (in fact, there’s a deflation in the past 12 months) and the country is improving on almost every front while our enemies are getting weaker by the day.
I think the Likud has a decent lineup, even without Feiglin, and together with Liberman, Bennet, Kachlon and haredim their coalition will be stronger than ever.
OK, let us assume your prediction occurs precisely as you foresee it; then what? feiglin is hardly the answer.
he is a greenbacker, see here:
and see here for more details:
http://kalkala-amitit.blogspot.co.il/2013/04/blog-post_8294.html
so, yes, feiglin is the best statesman in Israel. but Israeli society is so socialist/fascist, that is nowhere near enough. i know because i live here. but, hey, if you were running (even if you were NOT anarchist), i would still vote for you! any chance?
he is very far from being a rothbardian. he is more like “common sense-following” Margaret Thatcher. he SAYS he’ll do everything on his platform, but he is no radical ron paul. he thinks it would be “ultimately better” if we had this and did not have that, but i bet he will only only “take steps” in those directions. so gradually, nothing changes.
he will be very weak on any reform that doesn’t contain the word “Oslo”; as you can see in his early books and life, he cares for little else. i am so utterly confident of this, i would not mind putting equal amounts with you in an escrow account as a bet!
anyone who doesn’t understand time preference, thinking, with Aristotle, that “usury” is “exploitation”, and unjust, is economically illiterate, much as you personally have affection for him. i agree with much that you write, and dance the same political dance, but you are living in a fantastic “Pollyanna” world, if you think this promoting him is anything but weird “hishtadlus” (obligatory effort)!
Harry –
It’s good to see I’m not alone. I appreciate you commenting here. First, Feiglin is not a greenbacker. My most consequential discussions with him, one on one, have been about monetary policy. He understands the basics, though he is not Ron Paul. He agreed to make gold and silver legal tender in payment of taxes, and to allow private monies on the market. As much as you think you know him, I am his neighbor and I know him better. The only other thing I can say is that the same gut/soul feeling that makes me trust Ron, makes me trust him. He is a bit of a gradualist, but not a slow one. I am not a gradualist at all and if I were in charge I’d tear down everything I could as fast as I could without sleeping. But I still trust him, because what differentiates Ron Paul from the other politicians is the same thing that differentiates Moshe from the others.
Yes, Feiglin does not understand time preferences.
I am living in a fantastic world, weird as it may be. I live here because if I didn’t, I would be hopeless, and I would get out of this country and leave it to its doom, and probably move to Australia since there is nowhere else to go. But I have hope, not because I believe in Feiglin (he’s just a guy) but because I believe in God and that geulah is not a myth.
There are weirder people than I on this matter. I’m only the second weirdest. This year will determine if my fantastic world will become a reality or not.
When Feiglin is head of Likud, I will either run, or be the head of the Bank of Israel. One of the two.
It’s good that he’s a greenbacker. The current banking system (and a gold-backed system would be no different) allows bankers to rob us blind. They get to create money out of thin air, and lend it out at interest. All at the expense of you and me. It is the obligation of any government to make objective money available to the public. Not as a monopoly. If anyone wants to try using commodity based currency (gold, silver, etc), they’re welcome to try. But greenbackism is the way to go.
The money supply simply needs to be pegged, constitutionally, to something like the census, so that it can’t expand insanely.
He’s not a greenbacker! The shekel will remain unbacked but taxes payable in gold and silver with private money legal and untaxed. That’s it. Whoever wins wins, and we can stop philosophizing.