The day after, it’s hard. But I saw this coming. Just see my previous post.
In short, here’s what goes down from here. First, if you remember recent Israeli elections history, you’ll note that in the last two elections going back to 2009, Likud won a lot less seats than they were polling only a few days before the elections. In 2009 they were polling 35 a few days before and won 27. In 2012, Likud Beiteinu was polling 39 and won 31.
Even before that, in 2006, the leading party ended up winning a lot less seats than it was polling just before election day. Olmert’s Kadima was polling in the upper 30’s and came away with 29. In 2006, the surprise was the Pensioners, the Old People Party, that somehow got 7 seats. In 2013 it was Yesh Atid, which somehow ended up with 19 seats.
People are sick of Likud and they’re sick of Netanyahu. They say what they say to the pollsters but when they’re in the booth, many are looking for something different. Same this time around. From here Likud will start to slowly fall in the polls, from 22, down to 20, down to 18, and by election day they’ll end up with about 15. Bayit Yehudi could even end up beating them. Herzog will be Prime Minister, or there will be elections again if he can’t build a coalition.
The results for Likud will be so embarrassing that Netanyahu will have to resign. From there, Feiglin will run for the top spot again and win. In the background, the Eurozone will be imploding, inflation skyrocketing, and general financial chaos will ensue from all the money printing that has gone on since the last crash.
9 months to go. Let’s see if I’m right.