It’s Time for the Likud Ship to Sink

The day after, it’s hard. But I saw this coming. Just see my previous post.

In short, here’s what goes down from here. First, if you remember recent Israeli elections history, you’ll note that in the last two elections going back to 2009, Likud won a lot less seats than they were polling only a few days before the elections. In 2009 they were polling 35 a few days before and won 27. In 2012, Likud Beiteinu was polling 39 and won 31.

Even before that, in 2006, the leading party ended up winning a lot less seats than it was polling just before election day. Olmert’s Kadima was polling in the upper 30’s and came away with 29. In 2006, the surprise was the Pensioners, the Old People Party, that somehow got 7 seats. In 2013 it was Yesh Atid, which somehow ended up with 19 seats.

People are sick of Likud and they’re sick of Netanyahu. They say what they say to the pollsters but when they’re in the booth, many are looking for something different. Same this time around. From here Likud will start to slowly fall in the polls, from 22, down to 20, down to 18, and by election day they’ll end up with about 15. Bayit Yehudi could even end up beating them. Herzog will be Prime Minister, or there will be elections again if he can’t build a coalition.

The results for Likud will be so embarrassing that Netanyahu will have to resign. From there, Feiglin will run for the top spot again and win. In the background, the Eurozone will be imploding, inflation skyrocketing, and general financial chaos will ensue from all the money printing that has gone on since the last crash.

9 months to go. Let’s see if I’m right.


How would a Ron Paul victory affect Israel’s leadership?

As we get closer and closer to the Iowa caucuses on January 3, this is a question I’ve been asking myself with more and more intensity. The prospect that Israel will finally be cut loose and will no longer have an “American Father” but rather a true American friend excites me deeply for both countries.

Israel, both its leadership as well as the Jewish people at large, are so mentally dependent on America that they cannot imagine not being constantly backed by our father in the Western Hemisphere. A Ron Paul victory would be such a mental shock to Israeli society that the Jewish people would be in a type of frenzy, worrying about the future of the Jewish State and predicting doom once foreign aid is cut off.

There will be much confusion here among the leadership as one of the main objectives, if not THE objective of Israeli political leadership has been to secure American friendship so we don’t feel alone. The better they are at being friends with America, the better the Prime Minister of Israel is considered to be. This is why Ariel Sharon was so popular, whereas Netanyahu is at most tolerated, but nobody here really likes him like they liked Sharon.

So what would happen would be similar to a junkie losing his supply of cocaine. Israel would go into something of an existential frenzy, though she wouldn’t be in any real danger, much like an addict isn’t in any real danger when he runs out of blow.

With Israel off the American dime, the people will be able to look in other, more important directions than the American direction. They will seek out new leaders with new paradigms, start to work on the country like it is actually independent.

I believe that it is no coincidence that the Republican primaries and the Likud primaries are happening around the same time. As Ron Paul rises to prominence and the American people start to undergo a mental paradigm shift, Moshe Feiglin will rise in Israel, speaking the Israeli equivalent of the libertarian message, and the Jewish people will undergo the same sort of revolution, waking up from decades of political depressants.

By the time the 2012 elections come around, this could be a very, very different world.