This is it. It’s either happening on Sunday, or it isn’t happening. Greece will either leave the Eurozone on Sunday, or they will get bailed out again.
One thing I simply do not understand about this crisis is Germany. They refuse to devalue Greek debt, yet they know it cannot be paid. So instead of getting a fraction of it after a restructuring, they are insisting on getting zero. I don’t understand why. Germany started World War II over unsustainable debt. They have defaulted more times than any other European country in modern times. Hypocrites.
From the outside, and from a frum perspective, it certainly seems like a case of God hardening Merkel’s heart. The only thing I can think of causitively is that if Germany accepts a debt restructuring, then every Eurozone country with unsustainable debt (there are 6 of them by my count, France among them) will demand the same, and then bonds everywhere in the Eurozone could crash. So they are forcing Greece out as an example to anyone who might ask for a debt restructuring. But that itself will crash the bond market as well.
There’s really no way out of this, barring every Eurozone politician suddenly transforming into a libertarian and freeing every economy simultaneously.
China is crashing. Japan seems to be following today. Japan is the most indebted country in the world in terms of debt to GDP. Over 200%. I’m short DXJ as well right now, have been since March. US money supply growth is grinding to a halt. There are about 4 weeks left until growth goes negative if we don’t push through $12.1T by then, meaning quarterly shrinkage of money supply. The last time that happened was September 2008.
The 2008 crash occurred on the last day of 5768, the final day of the last shmitah year, September 29, 2008. The S&P swung 103 points that day. I’m getting an itchy feeling that Tisha B’Av this year is going to be nuts. But since it falls on Shabbos, it’ll be either 8 Av or 11 Av when fireworks erupt.
Just a feeling.
2 thoughts on “Looks like Sunday is Grexit Day”
While the Greeks hesitate, the Brits wait for Cameron to say something, some people have initiative:
Of course the Parliament will say “no, we stay” (unless they have an epiphany of some sort) but the petition itself devalues EU-anything on the market.
Not unexpected, but like the article says, Putin has no interest in helping bailing out Greece sooner than later.
Someone said that in Greece some hotels accept Bulgarian Leva as exchange coin.
But like the article says “Neither the EU nor NATO is likely to let Greece flirt with Moscow for long. “I’d bet Putin would love Greece to leave NATO and find Russia a port smack bang in the middle of the Mediterranean,” says Remy Davison, a political economist at Monash University. “But that ain’t gonna happen. Ever.”” So if anyone bails out Greece it won’t be Putin. Unless heart maybe.
So if Greece bails out we will understand why Juncker said “the discussions have been extremely friendly..” even if they scowl at Tsipras.
Some people comment that Putin can’t help Greece because “it’s not his place” because “Russia isn’t in BRICS yet”. But what if Russia doesn’t want to enter BRICS, I mean they must realize they’d be carrying Brasil all the way through. If Russia doesn’t want to need BRICS then they’ll do whatever it takes to arrange they don’t need to. And getting Greece before Russia must enter BRICS (2016) may be the thing to do.
Here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11720695/Why-Chinese-stocks-are-in-turmoil.html maybe Russia will have to carry China too either. I really don’t think they want to need BRICS.