This is it. It’s either happening on Sunday, or it isn’t happening. Greece will either leave the Eurozone on Sunday, or they will get bailed out again.
One thing I simply do not understand about this crisis is Germany. They refuse to devalue Greek debt, yet they know it cannot be paid. So instead of getting a fraction of it after a restructuring, they are insisting on getting zero. I don’t understand why. Germany started World War II over unsustainable debt. They have defaulted more times than any other European country in modern times. Hypocrites.
From the outside, and from a frum perspective, it certainly seems like a case of God hardening Merkel’s heart. The only thing I can think of causitively is that if Germany accepts a debt restructuring, then every Eurozone country with unsustainable debt (there are 6 of them by my count, France among them) will demand the same, and then bonds everywhere in the Eurozone could crash. So they are forcing Greece out as an example to anyone who might ask for a debt restructuring. But that itself will crash the bond market as well.
There’s really no way out of this, barring every Eurozone politician suddenly transforming into a libertarian and freeing every economy simultaneously.
China is crashing. Japan seems to be following today. Japan is the most indebted country in the world in terms of debt to GDP. Over 200%. I’m short DXJ as well right now, have been since March. US money supply growth is grinding to a halt. There are about 4 weeks left until growth goes negative if we don’t push through $12.1T by then, meaning quarterly shrinkage of money supply. The last time that happened was September 2008.
The 2008 crash occurred on the last day of 5768, the final day of the last shmitah year, September 29, 2008. The S&P swung 103 points that day. I’m getting an itchy feeling that Tisha B’Av this year is going to be nuts. But since it falls on Shabbos, it’ll be either 8 Av or 11 Av when fireworks erupt.
Just a feeling.