Someone posted this on ronpaulforums in response to a question I had. What he says is very important, and explains precisely why this whole “Iran will nuke Israel” thing is nonsense. That is not to say we don’t need to attack them for threatening us. We do. But we have little to fear from these bunch of Jew haters.
Having been a PATRIOT operator and someone whose trained exclusively against Iran for 2 years, I want to reiterate the most important facts in regards to Iran’s ACTUAL capabilities:
1) They have absolutely no missile that can reach America. None. It is a complete non-issue.
2) Their missile arsenal predominately consists of Shahab-1 through Shahab-5 missiles, Scud-B and Scud-C. Most of these are IRBMs (Intermediate Range) and none are ICBMs (Inter-Continental).
3) We have sold PATRIOT missile defense systems to Taiwan, Egypt, Germany, South Korea, Greece, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.
4) In order for Iran to launch any nuclear payload at Israel, they would have to first defeat the missile defense systems in Iraq, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, and Israel. Just look at line of sight from Iran to Israel and you’ll see it’s a foolish argument. Since there is no way for Iran to defeat these systems, their only option would be to overwhelm them. In order to do that, they’d likely have to launch their entire arsenal of missiles, which is essentially impossible due to the amount of logistics that would involve, without clearly setting of early warning WORLDWIDE.
5) We have great early warning systems that would allow us to send in our Air Force to take out most launch locations, prior to launch. Further, any missiles that do launch would then immediately identify launch locations we miss, so it is unlikely they could fire more than one volly from each location. This means that logistically, they not only have to beat our early warning systems, but they’d also have to launch from multiple thousands of locations.
6) Every nuclear payload launched from Iran has a 9/10 probability of being shot down over their own country and would cause widespread nuclear fallout for IRAN itself.
Ultimately, the conclusion is that it’s a complete non-issue, unless Iran wants to destroy itself with no guarantee of a mutual-assured destruction of Israel. It would be complete suicide with no achievement