Interview/Debate with Ryan Dawson This Week

So there’s this guy Ryan Dawson. I was introduced to him through Bob Wenzel’s Targetliberty/Economicpolicyjournal.com blogs which I read every day. I enjoy his commentary, one of those low-tech simple Youtube channels where it’s just a guy talking frankly.

Dawson is intensely anti Israel. I mean he really hates the State of Israel a la Rothbard. He generally focuses on the more superficial insanities of post modern society like mixed gender bathrooms by force, which really is one of the stupidest ideas I’ve ever fathomed, but every so often he uploads a video of some anti Israel protest.

I contacted the guy and I will be talking with him over Skype. Unlike 99.9% of Israeli Jews, or other Pro Israel diaspora Jews, I have a very muted emotional reaction to his anti Israel propaganda. It’s why I can talk to these people. I’m only mildly perturbed, and I think I can talk to him and convince him of the justness of being a “settler”. I I can’t whatever. The term settler really just means you live in a territory that is not in official control by a State, which is great by me. But in reality it is, because I still have to pay taxes to Israel when I live here, so the whole thing is bull.

His anti-Israel stuff is a mix of falsehood and misinterpretation, but it’s all based on truth, sadly. We are the occupiers and the aggressors. He takes media reports such as Jews burning arabs in Duma (it was Arabs burning each other) and he exploits them, which is fine and doesn’t really annoy me so much.

It may go on YouTube, it may not, I don’t know. If it does I’ll post it here.

Ya’alon Leaves, Yehuda Glick Enters Knesset, But Don’t Expect Too Much from Glick

There will now only be 119 morally challenged kleptomaniacs in the Knesset, as Moshe Bogey Ya’alon was kicked out for some reason and Rav Yehuda Glick will take his place. Since Glick is the 33rd on the Likud roster, he’s now in.

I have a lot of respect for Glick as of now. The coolest thing I’ve ever seen him do is say some Arabic prayer on Har Habayit with muslims. But I’m pretty sure that respect will fall away quickly and he’ll be absorbed by the system. He is good on one issue, and that is prayer on Har Habayit. There’s not much else I know about him in terms of his understanding of economics or his thinking about the State. I would assume he is your average Dati Leumi who believes the State is “Holy” and that the army is the hand of God.

Back in March there was a soldier who shot an Arab at point blank range in the head. The Arab wounded another soldier in Hevron by stabbing him and this other soldier shot him in the head after he was neutralized and supposedly no longer a threat. The debacle is what eventually somehow unseated Ya’alon.

The debate is being centered on whether the soldier thought that the Arab still had a bomb belt or not. But that doesn’t matter. That’s just smoke and mirrors, a legal defense being used to skirt the main issue.

The issue really is who has the right to seek justice. Most people say only the State, because otherwise we’d all be dead after shooting one another. That’s Hobbes’s point in the Leviathan. But the real answer is anyone has a right to seek justice. The case is complicated here though because occupied Arabs (the incident happened in Hevron) have a moral right to stab and kill the occupying force. Then the question becomes since the soldier did not have an intent to kill people before the stabbing, is he still a legitimate target? I don’t know. Maybe.

But let’s assume for a moment that the soldier’s presence in Hevron is morally justified, or at least that once attacked with lethal force, the soldier or his defenders have a right to fight back with lethal force. If he has the right by libertarian law even being an occupier, then his shooting of the Arab is no problem. Glick, however, doesn’t think so, because he believes that killing someone who sought to kill you, without first going through the state monopoly justice system, is immoral.

He’s wrong, and it shows that he is essentially a statist, like everyone else. הבא להרגך השכם והרגו does not have a caveat that we must wait for the State to decide.

And because Glick is a statist, he will meld into the system. His moves against the State, like praying on the Temple Mount, will be silenced, and he will go along with it, because he cannot challenge the state to the point that he would weaken its authority. His activism is probably just to make himself a name and once he has it he’ll back down. If he thinks I’m wrong I welcome his comment here and I’ll post it.

Glick would be a good force with Feiglin’s leadership, but his knowledge of economics is probably very weak. Don’t expect anything good to come out of Glick in terms of liberty, unfortunately.

I’m calling upon him publicly to reject coalition discipline, reject a Knesset salary, vote “yes” on all bills to reduce state power and money and “no” on all bills to expand state power and money.

But he won’t. He’ll start speaking politically correctly now, and he won’t go up to Har Habayit anymore, not without explicit permission from Netanyahu.

A Libertarian Headline at NRG: “Voting is Meaningless”

I check the headlines every so often for Israeli news, just in case a war breaks out or people have been hurt or killed God forbid and I should know about it. So I opened up NRG this morning and I saw this headline. I didn’t read the article and don’t plan on it:

הזחילה לממשלה: ליברמן הפך לבובה של נתניהו

במבחן הממשי הראשון ליברמן נשבר. ולא סתם נשבר, אלא השתטח עד עפר בפומבי כדי שנתניהו יקרא לו. בסופו של דבר, כולם משקרים את כולם, בכלל זה ראש הממשלה את הציבור, דבר שמעלה תהיות על משמעות הפתק בקלפי

I don’t know about or follow the political mess because the quality of my life diminishes when I try to pay attention to it, but the subtext is very encouraging.

“The crawl to Netanyahu: Liberman has become Netanyahu’s puppet.”

“Liberman has broken on his first real test. And he didn’t just break – he prostrated himself in the dirt in public so Netanyahu would call on him. At the end of the day, everybody’s lying to everyone else, including the Prime Minister to the public, which brings into question the significance of placing a ballot in the ballot box.”

The guy who wrote this is Ariel Kahane. I don’t know who he is but he’s probably your average right winger type.

I wonder if he knows that the sky is blue.

How Obama Just Exacerbated Income Inequality With His Overtime Meshuga’as

In a fit of absolute genius the likes you wouldn’t see from a highly evolved muskrat, Obama today is forcing buyers of labor to pay more for that labor at any rate over 40 hours per week. He thinks this will mean that more workers will make more money. As in the total number of dollars spent on labor will rise because of this law.

What he doesn’t understand is that less workers will be making more money and the remainder will lose, because laws cannot magically increase the amount of money people are willing to spend on labor. Less people will make more money in order to equal out the total dollar amount spent. The others will either be cut to part time or fired.

What happens is we go from a situation of relative equality, where say:

100 people make $100 overtime, for a total overtime dollar amount of $10,000

To a situation of less equality where:

90 people make $111.11 overtime for a total dollar amount, again, of $10,000, and the other 10 people have zero.

Therefore, overtime legislation creates income inequality. 

Obama doesn’t think. Therefore he isn’t.

Senate Passes 9/11 Bill That Would Force Saudi Arabia to Dump $750B in Treasuries

Oh boy, another possible trigger to the collapse of the US bond market. Today, the Senate unanimously passed a bill that would expose the Saudi Arabian government to lawsuits by victims of the 9/11 attacks. Saudi Arabia has threatened to dump its $750B worth of US government bonds if this were to happen. That, well, sort of hints that the Saudi Arabian government is partly responsible for sponsoring 9/11, otherwise they wouldn’t care.

President Obama, whose first responsibility is protecting his own ability to borrow ad infinitum in the bond markets to fund his socialist paradise spending schemes, has threatened to veto the bill because he doesn’t want the Saudis to dump the bonds and send his borrowing costs through the roof with a $19 trillion debt hanging over his head.

So to hell with 9/11 victims and their families, he’s going to protect a muslim government responsible for more public beheadings than ISIS.

But here’s the interesting part. It looks like the Senate and House will successfully pass the bill over Obama’s veto. It was already passed unanimously, and nobody, no Republican or Democrat or whatever other silly label or letter they put after their names, wants to vote against this bill because everyone knows that it should pass. The politicians on Capitol Hill aren’t even aware that this could really crash the bond market. Here’s NYT:

Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, a Democrat and bill sponsor, said the legislation would help the families of the victims seek justice. “For the sake of the families, I want to make clear beyond the shadow of a doubt that every entity, including foreign states, will be held accountable if they are found to be sponsors of the heinous act of 9/11,” he said shortly before the bill passed.

“If the Saudis did not participate in this terrorism, they have nothing to fear about going to court,” the senator said. “If they did, they should be held accountable.”

Mr. Schumer also said he believed Democrats would override a veto from Mr. Obama.

He said he believed Saudi Arabia’s threat to pull its assets, a concern of the administration, was “hollow,” adding, “It will hurt them a lot more than it hurts us.”

Where Schumer is wrong is that it’s not a hollow threat. It’s not like the Saudis would have a choice. Once they become open to lawsuits, their treasuries become collateral and can easily be confiscated by US courts no problem. The Saudis would be forced to sell everything before that could happen. It’s not a threat, but a necessity.

Hey, if the tax spender in Congress want to really jack interest rates higher and bankrupt themselves, go for it. They need two thirds to override Obama’s veto, which will come. They already have unanimity, so two thirds doesn’t seem all that difficult. It’s not exactly an uphill battle.

 

Model Portfolio Update

For anyone who has been following my trading game, the model portfolio is way up. See the model portfolio page on the menu bar. I closed the SPY call option position for a small loss. The contracts expired in the money, but not enough so, so we took a $480 loss. I added one contract of SRPT January 20, 2017 $50 CALL for $190. The big FDA decision on Eteplirsen is due in 10 days, and there is a chance it will be approved. If it is, that contract will become much more expensive.

Since everyone is focusing on options expiring next Friday since the FDA decision will be in by then, the longer dated calls are at a significant discount, so I bought one.

Total notional gains for open positions in the model so far are $19,000 flat plus realized gains from closed positions of $2,480, for 21.5% gains so far. Each individual position is as follows.

Portfolio began 9/21/15.

Open Positions As of January 5, 2016

$5,000 QQQ at $99.97/share – ADDED 1/20/2016, current gain $341.

$9,000 CVX at $76.97/share w/5% dividend – ADDED 1/20/2016, current gain $2,938.

$500 GLD JAN 2017 225 CALL  @ $0.13/contract  – current loss $154

$10,000 CORR at $25.80/share w/9% dividend – current loss $1,143

$10,000 CORR at $15/share with 17.7% dividend – ADDED 12/29/15 – current gain $5,220

$500 TLT JAN 2017 $95 PUT @ $3.00/contract – current loss $500

$30,000 GG at $13.40/share w/1.1% dividend – current gain $11,574

$10,000 POT at $17.80/share w/8.54% dividend – ADDED 12/29/15 current loss $1,033

$10,000 888.L at $2.72/share (183.5 pence) – ADDED 12/29/15 current gain $1,757

$190 SRPT Jan. 20, 2017 $50 CALL – ADDED 5/16/16

$17,330 CASH

Total notional gains $19,000 flat

Closed Positions

$20,000 CVX at $78/share w/5.5% dividend – SOLD 10/8/15 AT $89.72/SHARE FOR $23,000

$3,000 SPY APR 15 2016 203 CALL @ $5.95/contract – CLOSED 4/15/16 FOR $2,520

TOTAL As of May 16, 2015 – $121,480.

Total realized gain 2.48%, Total notional gains 19%.

Rounding down for commissions.

Additional information: This is a game, and I am making no recommendations.

Muscular Dystrophy, Sarepta, and the Evil of the FDA

I recently wrote a review of Sarepta Pharmaceuticals drug eteplirsen for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The gist of it is that the FDA is about to review the drug and vote whether to approve or reject it, on April 26. There is no significant proof that the drug works. Evidence suggests that it is safe though. Just to get the disclosure out of the way for legal reasons, I own no stake in Sarepta and don’t plan on buying any.

Muscular dystrophy is a horrible horrible disease. I wouldn’t wish it on anybody except members of Congress and the Knesset, but since it’s genetic that’s only rhetorical.

People who have it will die by the time they are 25 or so. Their muscles will decay and they will not be able to move, and then eventually they will not be able to breathe and that’s it.

Eteplirsen tries to repair the broken gene that codes for dystrophin, the protein that most of us have that enables us to move. It might work, it might not. It’s hard to tell. But without it, everyone with muscular dystrophy on exon 54 will die. With it, maybe they will, and maybe they won’t.

The meeting takes place on April 26. There will be record attendance at the meeting, I just read. 1,200 people will watch a group of government doctors determine if dying people will be allowed to take eteplirsen. The entire addressable market for this form of the disease is about 1,560 in the US.

The entire question is absolutely insane. If you don’t realize that, you are amoral, or immoral, or both. If these people want to take the damn drug, they should be able to take it at the agreed upon price, even if it were extremely dangerous, which it isn’t.

The thought of self righteous government scientists who do not have muscular dystrophy deciding for a group of people whether or not they can try the drug, just drives me mad. It makes me want to cry for them.

They will probably reject approval. For the greater good of course. Because if they are God forbid allowed to even try a drug that has no proven efficacy, the entire reason d’etre of the FDA will cease to exist.

Newsflash. There is no reason for the FDA to exist. All they do is kill people in the name of safety.

 

Keynesianism Is A Mystical Religion That Believes Paying Taxes To Government Makes You Richer Because The Government Is Wise

I came across this post today at Mises.org by William Anderson, reposted at EPJ, about Tax Day. It’s important to read in its entirety, then I’ll explain how it relates to mystic religion.

—–

April 15 is here and we are required to do the following: tell the government our income and send much of it to Washington.

Austrian-school economists are likely to tell you this is a bad thing and that taxes and government spending lower our living standards. In other words, the more government we are required to finance, the poorer we will be. According to the Austrians, economies grow through capital investments reflecting time preferences of individuals. Furthermore, Austrians actually claim that individual savings lead to economic growth. The more we pay in taxes, the less money we have for capital investment and saving. In other words, the more taxes we pay, the less we have for the building blocks of economic growth.

However, disciples of John Maynard Keynes, like Paul Krugman and others, take a rather different view. For them, wealth is achieved by spending, which creates economic growth. When consumers don’t spend enough, government rescues the economy by upping its spending. Because of this, should government raise taxes, it actually stimulates the economy more than individuals can do through their own spending. We could allow people to spend their money as they see fit. But, it’s better to be on the safe side and tax as much of it as possible, instead.

The Keynesian “Balanced Budget Multiplier” makes it all possible. It is a version of 2 + 2 = 5. The tax-fueled magic is explained as follows:

  • All spending has a “multiplier” effect. Spending increases the incomes of others, who then spend their increased income, and the pattern continues indefinitely.
  • Individual savings, according to Keynesians, are “leakages” from the system, and if not offset by equal “injections” via government spending or increased exports, the “multiplier” then works in reverse, pulling the economy into recession.
  • Government tax increases, however, have two-fold positive net effects. First, government spends new tax revenues, which quickly multiplies and creates new jobs. Second, by reducing individual incomes, people must spend larger percentages of their incomes to uphold their present standard of living. (The famed Keynesian “multiplier” equals 1 over the savings rate, so the less we save, the greater the multiplier.)

The “logic” of the balanced-budget multiplier differs from the logic of taxation and spending in Denmark. There, individuals pay most of their income in taxes, but supposedly receive marvelous government services that are more valuable to them than what they would have purchased on their own had high tax rates not existed.

Instead, the “Balanced-Budget” multiplier creates wealth by destroying savings. Austrians obviously disagree, and the “reality gap” between Austrians and Keynesians is widened. Austrians emphasize savings, capital accumulation, market prices and market interest rates, profits, losses, with entrepreneurs making decisions in an uncertain climate under the umbrella of economic calculation.

Keynesians promise an easy way out. Just give money to the government, which will spend and spend, and the spending multiplies prosperity. Interestingly, modern intellectuals will tell you that Keynesianism is “real world,” while Austrian economics is “pie in the sky.”

On April 15, Keynesians will contribute to growing prosperity by sending more money to Washington. However, Austrians likely will have a different take.

——

So, we are supposed to believe, according to Keynesian economics, that being robbed means we are becoming wealthier. That government spending is somehow magical because when politicians spend the same money on their own stuff, such as killing people or giving billions to Israeli or Arab despots, it somehow creates prosperity, whereas when you spend that money on what you actually want, it makes you poorer.

So I’m in the middle now of Volume I of Murray Rothbard’s An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought. It’s such a well written book and so fantastically organized, it’s a pleasure to read. Rothbard writes like the Rambam in terms of organization, though Rothbard is more verbose. It is impossible to be more succinct than Maimonides, unless you’re Rashi, but Rambam was clearer than Rashi most of the time. Maybe I’m the first one to make that comparison.

Anyway, Rothbard writes about the history of a town in Germany where a guy named Bockelson decided Jesus wanted everything collectivized and to each according to his need etc. Sound familiar? And that everyone was going to be forcibly converted to his brand of Christianity called something or other. Anabaptism maybe? I don’t care enough to double check.

He ended up getting sieged along with his followers while everyone was starving because the division of labor broke down, as it always does in forced communism. Rothbard writes the following about Bockelson, towards the end, after he had already declared himself king and everyone was starving to death.

It is not surprising that the deluded masses of Munster began to grumble at being forced to live in abject poverty while the king and his courtiers lived in extreme luxury on the proceeds of their confiscated belongings. And so Bockelson had to beam them some propaganda to explain the new system. The explanation was this: it was all right for Bockelson to live in pomp and luxury because he was already completely dead to the world and the flesh. Since he was dead to the world, in a deep sense his luxury didn’t count. In the style of every guru who has ever lived in luxury among his credulous followers, he explained that for him material objects had no value. How such ‘logic’ can ever fool anyone passes understanding.

And then I realized, the Keynesian nonsense ‘logic’ that giving your money to politicians and bureaucrats makes you richer, is the same exact thing. All western society has been indoctrinated into a religion that essentially preaches the government as King Bockelson. Bockelson can live in luxury while the his people starve because Bockelson is beyond the flesh.

And Washington can live in luxury while its subjects are forced to pay the taxes that Washington consumes, because giving Washington money makes the people richer, since Washington is beyond the flesh. Spending makes you richer. Savings makes you poorer. The more money politicians have, the better off everyone is. The richer Bockelson is, the better off his people are.

It’s the same religion. Keynesianism and insane early protestant Christian messianic communism.

Yakov Litzman Calls to Boycott McDonald’s Because Food “Unhealthy”

The bottom of the barrel just keeps getting deeper and stupider. Litzman is the Haredi equivalent of semi-educated hillbilly who is the “Health Minister”. But since he knows nothing about health, he basically goes into hospitals and makes sure they’re Shomer Shabbos.

He says, according to the AP, that, get this:

“There is no need to eat junk food. Not in our country.”

HA! What a zinger! I wonder how much garbage he eats every day. I’ve seen supermarkets in haredi shops full of sugar this and sugar that, sugar topped with sugar and coated with three layers of sugar with different forms of sugar on it. Sugar includes pasta, bread, crackers, actual sugar, pretzels, actual candy, noodles, flour, and anything you say בורא מיני מזונות on.

I smell a law coming on banning McDonald’s. Or passing a special McDonald’s tax so Litzman can give himself a junk food raise.

I used to live next door to Bnei Brak and watch all the dough-boy looking Haredi men and women pale as ghosts whose medical bills I have to pay because they eat nothing but junk.

At least at McDonald’s you can get some actual protein and salads.

Does he have any idea how often my kids are given candy by people they don’t know? In their gans, out of their gans, by real estate salesmen (seriously), how we avoid the government lunches because they’re always, basically, just sugar?

In this country, as well as all western countries, we keep feeding sugar to people until their pancreases explode in diabetes. Then our prescription for them, instead of stop eating sugar (which includes everything you say mezonos on) is to keep eating sugar but to shoot yourself up with insulin so you can keep eating it. And this is already after your pancreas has stopped working because you’ve been on a high sugar diet your whole life while all the doctors tell you to stay away from actual food, like meat and animal fat and even high fat fruits like avocados and coconuts.

Basically, this country tells people to avoid any food that will actually fill you up and stop you from eating garbage, and instead just keep eating the garbage. And when your body parts die because you’ve eaten too much garbage, to shoot yourself up with drugs so you can keep eating garbage.

And he’s telling me to boycott McDonald’s because it’s garbage.

If he wanted to rid the country of junk food, he’d have to clear nearly every single shelf of every single supermarket, and just keep the fruits vegetables and meat aisles.

The name “McDonald’s” is such a cheap shot. It’s embarrassing that creatures like Litzman exist.

Deep Praxeological Thoughts by Rafi Farber

I’m not exactly Jack Handey, but I’ll give this a try. It’s ironic, because I used to be a humor writer and now I’m taking a humor icon and turning it somber and serious. Life happens.

In hard sciences nobody has the audacity to try to change the laws of nature. They are what they are, and scientists attempt to use the laws of nature to navigate towards specific goals. The more they find out about the laws of nature, the more they can use them to construct outcomes. This is the long form description of “technology”.

It’s what physicists do, it’s what chemists do, it’s what (some) ecologists and psychologists do, but it’s not what most economists do. Notice that the more macro you get, the more politics interferes. There are almost no political physicists. Not to say there aren’t physicists who have political opinions, but almost none of them allow politics to infect their scientific thinking. There are no politics as to where a rocket will go when fueled with x at y trajectory. Same with chemistry, one level macro above physics. Biology you start having political biologists somewhat when it comes to the “gender pay gap” and whatever other nonsense explained by “biology”, but there’s not so much. Biology is macro-chemistry.

When you get to ecology/psychology, which are both macro-biology, you start getting political. Climatologists and other soothsayers are surveyed by the government about what laws should be passed for carbon footprints and whatnot. Psychologists often advocate government interference for a bunch of stuff. Those reading this who believe in global climate warming change should know that my carbon footprint is astronomically small for my economic position (which is not high, but I live quite beneath my means), so don’t give me any crap please. I’d bet it’s smaller than most climate global change warming activists.

By the time you get to economics, which is macro-psychology and macro-ecology, almost everything is political. Economists do not respect the immutable laws of economics. They attempt to change them. Supply and demand no longer apply when they can be changed by politics. Minimum wage doesn’t unemploy those whose labor is not worth minimum wage. Increasing the quantity of money does not decrease purchasing power. Supply and demand doesn’t apply all the time. Free markets don’t always work, like gravity always works. Etc. But supply and demand actually do, always, work, which means minimum wage causes unemployment, the end. But this is ignored by most “economists”.

The humbling thing about economics is that its laws cannot ever be changed. And people desperately want to change lives by force. It is the drive for power. Someone figures out the laws of motion and can create a rocket. By the time you get to economics, you are dealing with free will of human beings, which has a divine quality to it. If the laws of physics and biology are immutable, so are the laws of economics. Everything is one system.

And that is the difficulty of being a real economist. You cannot use your knowledge to tinker with the system, without betraying the knowledge you have learned. Once you try to tinker through politics, you start playing God with human lives without their consent. With biology you can tinker with human lives, but only with their consent. With economics, suddenly it’s OK to tinker with the entire human population with impunity? No. It is not.

This is why economics, real economics, is the most important subject in the world to learn, understand. The smartest people in the world think they can interfere with good results. They are all, 100%, absolutely wrong. Only the Austrian School understands this.