Or may as well have said. The content is pretty much the same.
Month: August 2015
Four Blood Moons Calling? Greek Elections again, S&P Minicrash, Gold bear over?
Well, if the whole blood moons thing is correct, which I still doubt but it is possible, then the picture has to start deteriorating fast. Like now, within the next two months. According to Blood Moon Theory or whatever you want to call it, we have until Hoshanah Rabba 5776 for the world to change somehow.
Today, the S&P broke medium term support at 2040, gold is up again, miners up 20% since bottoming late July, China crashing again, VIX up 25% in one day. I’m long gold and miners (obviously), no longer short China anymore, but long the VIX expiring in November since covering the China short.
Let’s clarify this “China devaluing” mumbo jumbo for a second. China has a “peg” to the dollar. That means the PBOC doesn’t allow the Renminbi, or Yuan or whatever they call it, to trade below a certain exchange rate with the dollar. They control it by buying or selling dollars whenever it gets too close. China is not “devaluing” its currency so much as simply letting it trade below a previous peg without the PBOC selling dollars to strengthen it to within an arbitrary peg. Why are they doing this? They think they need to in order to “stimulate exports” which is a bunch of crap, like saying you need to take hit of your crackpipe to think clearly. Yeah, maybe for 3 seconds, but then you go nuts.
Now Vietnam and Kasakhstan and a whole bunch of other countries few people care about economically are doing the same thing. The peg is manipulation. Releasing that peg is allowing the free market to trade the currency.
I’m in the US now, and this is the first time in years I’ve even put on main stream financial media around market close today just to see what they say. The bullshit is so thick you can’t cut it with a chainsaw. Nobody has any clue what they’re talking about, and they all say that in different words.
Greek elections are happening again. My hope is Yanis Varoufakis will get off his butt and run for Prime Minister in a new party. He’d win hands down, I think, and send the banksters to hell. He’s the only one that would do it. September 20th apparently is the date.
Gold is on its way up past $1,150 after bottoming (hopefully) at $1,072. If this is the bottom, it’s been a long time coming.
When the S&P broke support since February when it steamrolled through 2040, it was in the last 15 minutes of trading today. If stocks don’t bounce back sharply tomorrow morning early, then the next support levels are at 1972. If that gets broken, 1820 is next. Tomorrow is a very important day for stocks. If they don’t bounce early, they probably won’t bounce.
Let’s see what happens.
Why Donald Trump Will be a Disaster
In the end it doesn’t matter who is president of the US, but Donald Trump is especially scary because he’s even more bloodthirsty than Lincoln or FDR or Truman or Bush, יימח שמם. Economically he’s a lunatic, not any more lunatic than any of the other candidates, but only because he may be insane enough to try to force his policies by sheer might.
As for bloodthirsty, of all the candidates he may be the one to invade China or Russia, or both, because he’s so awesome that it would work just because. He believes China is devaluing its currency to hurt American exports (and what’s America doing?), and on that pretext he wants to “punish” them. He can do this by either restricting trade, in which case Americans will no longer have cheap stuff from China anymore, or by bombing China, which is bat guano crazy.
Here’s a good analogy that illustrates how bloodthirsty Trump is. The classic argument for Truman murdering 200,000 innocent people is that it somehow saved American lives. Truman could have simply stopped the war unilaterally after Hitler was defeated and just leave the Japanese the hell alone. That would have saved American lives without murdering 200,000 more. He did not have to continue conquering Japan.
He could have easily sent a video of the first nuclear bomb test to Horohito and the Japanese government, pulled all the troops out of the Pacific, and said to Japan, “Look, if you ever touch US territory again, we’ll drop one of these on your head.”
For the love of God there were better ways of saving American lives than dropping two nuclear bombs on civilians. It’s so ingrained that this was the justification that nobody questions it. Even if you want to say the first one was justified (which it categorically was not), there was no point in bombing Nagasaki 3 days later for God’s sake.
It took Japan another 3 weeks to surrender unconditionally. In those three weeks, Truman’s generals were urging him to bomb another city with yet another nuke that was almost ready, and Truman said no, that’s enough. He stopped the carnage.
Donald Trump would have destroyed another city and murdered another 100,000 people or more. Because remember, Japan’s surrender was not unconditional. They insisted that Horohito retain the title of “Emperor”. Truman said fine. Trump would have said no, and obliterated another city, just so some guy can’t call himself “Emperor”.
He’d say some snappy bloodthirsty line that makes the masses cheer like, “God help me if I let him call himself Emperor. I’ll nuke his country until he’s the last Jap standing! I’ll make him pay for bombing Pearl Harbor! Then we’ll see who he’s Emperor of!” and everyone would cheer and he’d keep murdering away. (Pearl Harbor, by the way, was a military installation of warships. It is therefore a legitimate target if you’re trying to retaliate against an oil embargo enforced by those ships. Yes, Japan committed lots of war crimes against the Chinese in particular, but Pearl Harbor was not one of them.)
Why? Because Trump is so arrogant that his bloodthirsty psychopathy knows no bounds. Had he been German in the 1930’s, he would have been an enthusiastic supporter of the Final Solution, instead of just a guy following orders. That is his personality.
Economically, he came out with a statement a few days ago on how he would not allow Ford to ship any factories outside the US. He said he would force Ford to move the factory back to the US if elected. And why are they moving it to Mexico in the first place? Because labor is cheaper there, and they need to keep costs down. If they keep the factory in the US, who pays the difference? Ford?
Ford is already $123 billion in debt. And unlike the US Government, Ford cannot inflate its way out.
The difference will be paid by the taxpayer in the next round of bailouts signed into law by President Trump.
Goods need to be made where they can be made cheapest, so we can have those goods for cheap. Those who would have been manufacturing cars here should do something else.
The Jewish Libertarian 