This will be the ultimate test for the global financial system to date, since the 2008 financial crisis. I turned on my computer Motzei Shabbos and it took me a few minutes to make sense of all the headlines. Apparently, what is happening is this.
Greece’s creditors want spending cuts, Greece says only tax hikes. That I already knew. Then the creditors, the “troika” or the “institutions” or whatever you want to call them, say “No, we’re serious, it’s either spending cuts or default.”
The official bailout expires June 30. Tsipras and Varoufakis said OK, we’ll do a referendum to see if the people want spending cuts or default. Tsipras and Varoufakis ask for a few weeks extension to the official bailout program which expires June 30, because they cannot organize a referendum by then.
And the troika says no, no extension.
So the referendum is meaningless.
Therefore, Greece will default for (nearly) certain on June 30. Now, here’s the interesting part. If the global financial system is as unstable as I believe it is, there will be a bond attack in Spain and Italy. If that bond attack is not quelled within a week, it will spread to Portugal and Ireland. Or it could be Portugal and Ireland first and then Spain and Italy. Point is, there will be a bond attack somewhere and interest rates will skyrocket for some Eurozone country deeply in debt.
If that is not quelled by massive money printing the likes of which have never been seen, you’ll start to see the carnage cross oceans.
Basically, it comes down to this. If the global financial system can withstand the first few weeks of this default, then there will be no global financial meltdown. If it can last the first 2 weeks, then collapse is another 10 years away. If in the next two (maybe three) weeks we see interest rates skyrocketing globally, then this is the end of the current global monetary system. I honestly don’t know. But everyone knows what I’m rooting for.
Let’s see what happens. And prey for the Greek people. No matter what happens globally, they are going to be starving in the streets because of government restrictions on their economic activity, AKA capital controls. They will lose their savings, but anyone with gold and silver will be OK. (And lead.) If you have any family in Greece, tell them to get out of the country in any way possible right now. I mean right now, don’t even sleep on it. Boat, plane, walk across the border to Macedonia, it doesn’t matter. Just get out.