It has always been my opinion that Ron Paul will not have any sort of surge. Those who think he will do not understand that the anti Paul vote is much stronger than the anti Romney vote.
Let’s take someone like Santorum for instance. You have your average voter that’s looking for someone on his team, the “Republicans,” but he’s looking for the best player, the one who can go the most yards and beat the “Democrats” and their quarterback Obama. To the average voter, this whole election is just a game. It’s not about issues and who you think will be best for the country. It’s who can win the game for your team so you feel like you’re a winner if you’re on that team. That’s pretty much it.
Surges can only happen for candidates who are pretty much the same as other candidates, because any real difference in issues will force a voter to think that maybe something he votes for will ACTUALLY change the country in a real fundamental way, something he’s not willing to do. So the mob will turn from one candidate to another, so long as they’re pretty much the same.
If you’re waiting for Ron Paul to surge, keep waiting. He won’t. There are only two ways he can win the Republican nomination. The first and most obvious is that everything he has been saying for the last 40 years comes true and the dollar falls and chaos ensues. That would take voters out of their cheerleading stupor and start to think about real issues.
But the other way is a la the story of Gideon in the book of Judges, chapters 6-8. He’s the guy that led the Jews against Midian with 300 people, a group that God purposely whittled out to prove that victory is His and not an army’s.
The Republican nomination process is just so convoluted in a way that Ron Paul could actually win without getting a significant percentage of the popular vote. If Paul supporters stack the delegate deck and we end up with a brokered convention, for example, and after being released if they are pledged to another candidate, they vote for Paul in a second or third round.
This could theoretically happen.
As regards a face-off between Obama and Paul, that would just be electrifying. Seriously, I would crave every debate, every face-off, it would be absolutely fantastic. You’d have two people that really, essentially, stand for absolute opposite things. Obama for state power, Paul for individual freedom, and of course in the end Paul would win easily, because the difference would be so stark it would wake up droves.
Then why not wake up now? Because with the possibility of having just a cheerleading game, the team players won’t go for something real. But when it’s right in front of them, then the whole game changes into one that’s for keeps.