Looks like the Greeks will vote No on the Greferendum

Bloomberg reports:

The first poll before a snap referendum Sunday indicated most people back Tsipras. The survey, in Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper, showed 54 percent would vote “no” — rejecting austerity in exchange for aid — and 33 percent would vote “yes” — accepting austerity as the price of staying in the euro. The poll was conducted by ProRata, which surveyed 1,200 people June 28-29 with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

The truth is the question itself is nonsense. They cannot reject austerity. They have already overspent. Austerity will either come through spending cuts which will impose it on those who receive government paychecks, or it will come through hyperinflation if they go to the Drachma.

It looks like the Greeks are voting to leave. It’s going to be a pretty interesting 17 Tammuz. I wonder what happens on 9 Av.

With all the gay marriage obsession it’s a wonder I’m still a religious Jew

Self-defined religious that is. People can call me whatever they want, but I still believe the Torah was given at Sinai, in some form at least, by God, that Moshe (Moses) existed, and that this was a historical event.

In any case, the longer I remain a remain a libertarian, the farther my former frum(ish) persona is left in the distance. The less I can take Rabbinic figures seriously because they’re focused on such nonsense. I’ve had this conversation with my wife many times. I can’t take Divrei Torah or Halacha Shiurim seriously anymore. They all seem like a joke to me. Here we are pining over some detail and trying to extract some intellectual opium over it by coming with whatever Svarah, and meanwhile the biggest global theft in the history of the world is happening under our noses and all the religious leaders coming up with the Svarahs have no idea that it’s even happening.

My feed is full of gay marriage comments. Gay marriage. Gay people reading this should rejoice in my next statement: Gay marriage does not matter, in the scheme of things. It’s nice that gay people can now inherit or visit their sick spouses or whatever it is they want to do. It’s a tiny injustice that is now undone. But it’s the government giving gay people a crutch after breaking their legs. Thank you. Whatever. I suppose if I were gay it would matter more to me on a personal level.

Meanwhile, humanity is being slowly led like sheep into the financial gas chambers and nobody realizes it. If you think what’s happening in Greece is intense, imagine it happening globally.

I remember a shiur I once had in college on Emunos Ve’Deos by the RaSag. Sa’adya began his work by saying something like, “If we all stole from one another, nothing would be left.”

That is essentially what we are all doing. We are borrowing from the future to consume in the present (for this is debt) and it’s going to end. It is very hard to take religious figures seriously when they are focused on such issues as the sexual acts between consenting adults.

It’s the equivalent of religious pornography. Watching porn is fine. It’s just stupid, and in the long term harmful, and if you really get into it, self-destructive.

Religious leaders need to come to terms with the correct position. That is, if God says he’s going to kill you for consensual homosexuality, then let Him do it, and leave us Rabbis alone about it. We’re not interested in religious pornography. We should all really be concerned about the fact that everyone is stealing from everyone else, and we’re about to run out of pie.

 

COINCIDENCE? The Greferendum Will Take Place on the Fast of 17 of Tamuz

I looked at the calendar just now and noticed that the Greek Referendum, or the so-called Greferendum on Eurozone membership is going to take place on 18 Tamuz. The fast is postponed one day because the 17th of Tamuz falls out on Shabbat.

I also noticed that the 4th of July falls out on 17 Tamuz this year. The 17th of Tamuz marks the beginning of the ominous 3 weeks from 17 Tamuz to 9 Av, when Jews are advised to pretty much hunker down and don’t take any major risks. On 17 Tamuz, the walls of Jerusalem were breached, Moses broke the Tablets, Apostemos burnt the Torah, an idol was placed in the Beit HaMikdash, and the daily offering ceased.

I also noticed that last Friday, the day that Alexis Tsipras called off negotiations on the bailout and called for the Greferendum was the 9th of Tamuz, which is the original fast day that we now observe on the 17th of Tamuz.

This could all be nothing, but it could mean something. I guess we’ll find out in a few days. The financial world is hanging by a hair. And yes, I could be wrong.

IRONY of Ironies: Greece may not even have the money to hold a referendum!

Zerohedge is reporting that FAZ, a German news agency, is reporting that the referendum may be moot simply because the Greeks have no money to logistically carry it out.

I can’t imagine that if the referendum actually happens, the Greek people will turn it down and say no to the deal. They’ll say yes. Losing access to their savings outright is too frightening for anyone. And I cannot imagine that if they say yes, the Troika will say, “Nope, sorry, you’re a week too late,” and cut the country loose. They’ll give them the money eventually and Grexit will be avoided.

BUT. If the referendum doesn’t actually happen in the first place because the Greek government is so bankrupt that it can’t even hold a referendum, then Grexit is entirely possible, and this is the end.

And it will be their fault too, because they have waited so long to actually ask their people.

So let’s sharpen it. If the referendum happens, collapse will be averted. If it doesn’t because they are so completely bankrupt, then this is the endgame.

Bond Attack on Italy and Spain Begins

Spanish bond yields jump
Spanish bond yields jump

Yields are falling in the stronger economies and surging in the weaker ones. Bloomberg:

Spain’s 10-year bond yield jumped 14 basis points to 2.25 percent, set for the biggest increase since June 15. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds climbed 14 basis points to 2.29 percent, having earlier surged as much as 57 basis points.

“The market is seeking haven assets as some investors perceive Grexit risk as being higher now,” said Vincent Chaigneau, London-based global head of rates and foreign-exchange strategy at Societe Generale SA. “That said, we expect to see some stabilization soon. If the Greeks vote to accept the creditors’ deal, then talks can resume and I think most of them still want to remain in the euro zone.”

The Greeks will vote next week to stay in the Eurozone. If that quells bond markets, it may avert a collapse for a while. If it doesn’t, then this is the end game. Unless China keeps crashing and bringing down other markets with it anyway. China is down another 3.5% today.

What Happens When Greece Can No Longer Pay Riot Police?

Headline article on Business Insider today is “Greeks are Withdrawing Money from ATM’s Faster Than They Can Be Replenished”.

The accompanying picture is a bunch of Greek State soldiers with riot gear. The minor danger here is that the riot police will get out of hand and start beating or shooting protesters when things get really desperate.

But the major danger is this: What happens when the Greek State can no longer pay its own riot police?

What happens when these people aren't paid?
What happens when these people aren’t paid?

Greece Defaults in Three Days, Global Collapse May Begin July 1

This will be the ultimate test for the global financial system to date, since the 2008 financial crisis. I turned on my computer Motzei Shabbos and it took me a few minutes to make sense of all the headlines. Apparently, what is happening is this.

Greece’s creditors want spending cuts, Greece says only tax hikes. That I already knew. Then the creditors, the “troika” or the “institutions” or whatever you want to call them, say “No, we’re serious, it’s either spending cuts or default.”

The official bailout expires June 30. Tsipras and Varoufakis said OK, we’ll do a referendum to see if the people want spending cuts or default. Tsipras and Varoufakis ask for a few weeks extension to the official bailout program which expires June 30, because they cannot organize a referendum by then.

And the troika says no, no extension.

So the referendum is meaningless.

Therefore, Greece will default for (nearly) certain on June 30. Now, here’s the interesting part. If the global financial system is as unstable as I believe it is, there will be a bond attack in Spain and Italy. If that bond attack is not quelled within a week, it will spread to Portugal and Ireland. Or it could be Portugal and Ireland first and then Spain and Italy. Point is, there will be a bond attack somewhere and interest rates will skyrocket for some Eurozone country deeply in debt.

If that is not quelled by massive money printing the likes of which have never been seen, you’ll start to see the carnage cross oceans.

Basically, it comes down to this. If the global financial system can withstand the first few weeks of this default, then there will be no global financial meltdown. If it can last the first 2 weeks, then collapse is another 10 years away. If in the next two (maybe three) weeks we see interest rates skyrocketing globally, then this is the end of the current global monetary system. I honestly don’t know. But everyone knows what I’m rooting for.

Let’s see what happens. And prey for the Greek people. No matter what happens globally, they are going to be starving in the streets because of government restrictions on their economic activity, AKA capital controls. They will lose their savings, but anyone with gold and silver will be OK. (And lead.) If you have any family in Greece, tell them to get out of the country in any way possible right now. I mean right now, don’t even sleep on it. Boat, plane, walk across the border to Macedonia, it doesn’t matter. Just get out.